A library for thinking under uncertainty.
Cognitive biases, tail risks, antifragility, decision protocols. Vladyslav's practical notes on Kahneman and Taleb - turned into a searchable system for better decisions.
Concepts and mental models
Ruin
The class of outcomes from which you cannot recover. Ruin doesn't average out, doesn't get reversed by a winning streak, and ends the game.
Open conceptExposure
The shape of what happens to you under different outcomes - not the probability of those outcomes. Manage exposure, not forecast.
Open conceptOptionality
The asymmetric right (not obligation) to take advantage of good outcomes without being trapped by bad ones.
Open conceptBarbell strategy
Combine extremely safe positions with extremely risky ones. Avoid the «moderate» middle, which has thin-tail-thinking risk you can't see.
Open conceptPositive asymmetry (convexity)
Shape your bets so the downside is small and the upside is large. The asymmetry - not the probability - is what generates positive long-run results.
Open conceptSkin in the game
Trust advice and decisions from people who pay the cost of being wrong. Distrust those who don't.
Open conceptAntifragility
Not the opposite of fragile. Beyond robust. Antifragile systems benefit from stress, variation, error, and time.
Open conceptFragility / Robustness / Antifragility triad
Three shapes under stress: fragile breaks, robust holds, antifragile improves. Most systems aren't classified - they should be.
Open conceptVia negativa
Improve by subtracting harm - not by adding clever fixes. Removing bad inputs is more reliable than adding good ones.
Open conceptSingle point of failure
A component whose failure brings down the whole system. The classic structural fragility. Almost always cheaper to remove than to defend.
Open conceptSmall local failures (design for them)
Build systems where small components fail often, cheaply, and visibly - so the whole system gets information without ever risking ruin.
Open conceptLindy effect
For non-perishable things (ideas, books, technologies), the longer something has been around, the longer it's likely to stick around.
Open conceptNeomania
Falling for newness as if it were a virtue. The neomaniac upgrades for the sake of upgrading.
Open conceptIatrogenics
Harm caused by the intervention itself. Treatment that's worse than the disease.
Open conceptIntervention bias
The compulsion to «do something» even when doing nothing has the better expected outcome.
Open conceptFragilista
Someone whose actions reliably make systems more fragile while sounding smart. The well-meaning destroyer.
Open conceptConvexity
A position is convex when small increases in input produce disproportionate gains, while losses are bounded.
Open conceptAmor fati
«Love of fate». Embrace what happens - including loss, pain, and reversal - as material for the system you're building.
Open conceptPractical templates
Via Negativa Checklist
Find the cheapest improvement: what to remove instead of what to add.
Barbell Strategy Planner
Restructure a position (career, portfolio, project) into an extreme-safe + extreme-upside combo.
Single Point of Failure Audit
Find the components whose failure would bring everything down.
Antifragility Quick Check
30-second triage: is this system fragile, robust, or antifragile right now?
Concept comparisons
Fragile vs Robust vs Antifragile
Any system you can't easily rebuild. Career, relationships, supply chain, codebase.
Open comparisonMediocristan vs Extremistan
Whenever you plan to «average» something. First classify the domain.
Open comparisonInside View vs Outside View
Every project estimate, every revenue forecast, every commitment.
Open comparisonAvailability vs Base Rate
Risk estimation, hiring, forecasting, anything where vivid recent memories influence judgment.
Open comparisonWYSIATI vs Silent Evidence
Any decision based on success stories, expert testimony, or curated examples.
Open comparisonOptionality vs Forecasting
Any high-uncertainty bet: career, product, market timing. Default to optionality.
Open comparisonThis part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.