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AntifragilityBlack SwanTemplate
Barbell Strategy Planner
Restructure a position (career, portfolio, project) into an extreme-safe + extreme-upside combo.
20 minutes
The position you want to restructure
One concrete area.
What's the moderate-middle bet you're currently making?
Diversified-but-not-safe; ambitious-but-not-asymmetric. The bit that looks reasonable.
Safe leg (85–90%)
Boring, capital-preserving, robust. List what fits.
Risky leg (10–15%)
Capped downside, uncapped upside. Multiple small bets.
Stop conditions for the risky leg
When do you cut a particular risky bet?
Output
A two-leg portfolio with explicit stop conditions on the risky leg.
Related concepts
Barbell strategyCombine extremely safe positions with extremely risky ones. Avoid the «moderate» middle, which has thin-tail-thinking risk you can't see.OptionalityThe asymmetric right (not obligation) to take advantage of good outcomes without being trapped by bad ones.Positive asymmetry (convexity)Shape your bets so the downside is small and the upside is large. The asymmetry - not the probability - is what generates positive long-run results.ExposureThe shape of what happens to you under different outcomes - not the probability of those outcomes. Manage exposure, not forecast.
Original books
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.