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KahnemanComparison
Availability vs Base Rate
Risk estimation, hiring, forecasting, anything where vivid recent memories influence judgment.
| Axis | Availability heuristic | Base rate (and base-rate neglect) |
|---|---|---|
| Drives by | How easily examples come to mind | Background frequency in the relevant population |
| When wrong | Rare-but-vivid feels common; common-but-quiet feels rare | Almost never, but ignored too often |
Example
After a friend's startup fails, «most startups fail» feels truer - even if the base rate hasn't changed.
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Read the original book
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.