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KahnemanComparison
Inside View vs Outside View
Every project estimate, every revenue forecast, every commitment.
| Axis | Inside view | Outside view |
|---|---|---|
| Source of estimate | Details of this specific case | Distribution of similar past cases |
| Feel | Detailed, rigorous, optimistic | Generic, blunt, pessimistic |
| Usually right when… | You know the execution details well | There's a defensible reference class |
Example
Inside view: «we'll launch in 8 weeks». Outside view (looking at 6 similar past projects): median was 16 weeks, max 32. The truth lives somewhere in between - and the outside view almost always wins.
Open the underlying concepts
Read the original book
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.