A library for thinking under uncertainty.
Cognitive biases, tail risks, antifragility, decision protocols. Vladyslav's practical notes on Kahneman and Taleb - turned into a searchable system for better decisions.
Concepts and mental models
System 1 & System 2
Two modes of thinking: System 1 is fast, automatic, associative; System 2 is slow, deliberate, effortful.
Open conceptWYSIATI - What you see is all there is
We build confident conclusions from the small slice of information available, ignoring what we don't know.
Open conceptCognitive ease
When information feels easy to process - familiar, clear, repeated - we trust it more, even when it's wrong.
Open conceptQuestion substitution
When a question is hard, the mind silently answers an easier related question instead - and reports the answer as if it answered the original.
Open conceptAvailability heuristic
We judge how common or likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.
Open conceptAnchoring
Any number you see first quietly pulls every subsequent estimate toward it - even when the anchor is irrelevant or random.
Open conceptBase rate (and base-rate neglect)
The background frequency of something across the relevant population - and the chronic mistake of ignoring it in favour of vivid specifics.
Open conceptPlanning fallacy
We chronically underestimate how long things will take, how much they will cost, and how much can go wrong.
Open conceptOutside view
Estimate by treating your case as a member of a reference class of similar past cases - not by reasoning from inside your specific story.
Open conceptInside view
Estimating a case by reasoning from inside its own story and details - usually too optimistic, usually overconfident.
Open conceptLoss aversion
Losses hurt about twice as much as equivalent gains feel good. We will work harder to avoid losing $100 than to gain $100.
Open conceptFraming effect
How a choice is described changes which option people pick - even when the underlying outcomes are mathematically identical.
Open conceptRegression to the mean
Extreme observations are usually followed by less extreme ones, regardless of any intervention. Mistake regression for causation and you'll see patterns that aren't there.
Open conceptOverconfidence
We are systematically more certain than we should be, especially about predictions and our own judgment.
Open conceptWhen expert intuition can be trusted
Two conditions: a regular, predictable environment AND fast, clear feedback. Only when both hold can intuition become genuinely reliable.
Open conceptNarrative fallacy
We turn messy reality into clean stories. Stories explain in hindsight but predict almost nothing.
Open conceptPractical templates
Concept comparisons
Fragile vs Robust vs Antifragile
Any system you can't easily rebuild. Career, relationships, supply chain, codebase.
Open comparisonMediocristan vs Extremistan
Whenever you plan to «average» something. First classify the domain.
Open comparisonInside View vs Outside View
Every project estimate, every revenue forecast, every commitment.
Open comparisonAvailability vs Base Rate
Risk estimation, hiring, forecasting, anything where vivid recent memories influence judgment.
Open comparisonWYSIATI vs Silent Evidence
Any decision based on success stories, expert testimony, or curated examples.
Open comparisonOptionality vs Forecasting
Any high-uncertainty bet: career, product, market timing. Default to optionality.
Open comparisonThis part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.