Narrative fallacy
Нарративная ошибка · Нарративная иллюзия
We turn messy reality into clean stories. Stories explain in hindsight but predict almost nothing.
After a company succeeds, journalists construct a narrative: visionary founder, bold pivot, perfect timing. The narrative feels causally tight. The fact that 1000 similar companies with similar founders and similar pivots failed is invisible. Narratives are storytelling tools, not analytical tools.
Narrative fallacy is what makes post-hoc explanations feel like predictions. The world that contradicted the story is missing from the dataset.
«Apple succeeded because Steve Jobs was a perfectionist» - feels true; ignores all the perfectionists who failed.
- 1Whenever a story feels too clean, ask: «where's the version of this story that failed?»
- 2Demand a falsifier: «what evidence would have shown the narrative wrong?»
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.
- · Методичка по Канеману - нарративные ошибки
- · Черный Лебедь - нарративная ошибка