WYSIATI - What you see is all there is
WYSIATI · What you see is all there is · Что видишь, то и есть · WYSIATI Канеман
We build confident conclusions from the small slice of information available, ignoring what we don't know.
System 1 makes the best story it can from whatever evidence is currently in view, and confidence in the story is driven by coherence, not completeness. A neat narrative built from three facts feels truer than a messy reality built from thirty.
WYSIATI explains overconfidence in plans, hiring decisions, forecasts, and post-hoc explanations. The information that would change your mind is precisely the information you're not looking at.
A founder pitches a project and is sure it will work. The pitch is based entirely on what's visible: customer enthusiasm, addressable market, team energy. The graveyard of similar startups is invisible.
- 1Ask: «what would I need to know to change my mind?» before committing.
- 2Look for silent evidence - the things that exist but didn't make it into your data.
- 3Treat any «obvious» conclusion as a checkpoint, not a verdict.
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.
- · Методичка по Канеману - WYSIATI