Question substitution
Подмена вопроса · Substitution heuristic
When a question is hard, the mind silently answers an easier related question instead - and reports the answer as if it answered the original.
«Will this candidate succeed in the role?» is hard. «Do I like this candidate?» is easy. The mind answers the easy one and presents the result as if it answered the hard one. The trap is that the substitution is invisible - you feel certain because the easy answer came back clean.
Most «gut judgments» about complex questions - hiring, investing, partner choice, strategy - are answers to a different, easier question. Recognising the substitution is the start of fixing it.
Asked «is this stock a good investment?» you actually answer «do I like the company's brand and CEO?» Two different questions, one feels like the other.
- 1Before answering, write the original question on paper exactly.
- 2Then write «what easier question is my mind actually answering?»
- 3If the two differ a lot, you have substitution. Treat the easy answer as a hypothesis, not a verdict.
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.
- · Методичка по Канеману - подмена вопроса