When expert intuition can be trusted
Экспертная интуиция · Когда можно доверять интуиции
Two conditions: a regular, predictable environment AND fast, clear feedback. Only when both hold can intuition become genuinely reliable.
Firefighters, chess masters, and ER doctors develop real intuition because the world reliably tells them when they're wrong. Stock pickers, geopolitical forecasters, and book editors usually don't - the feedback is slow, noisy, or absent, and «experience» is just years of getting away with bad calls.
Don't dismiss intuition. Don't worship it either. Ask: «in this domain, does reality teach the practitioner?» If yes, trust intuition. If no, trust process.
An anaesthetist with 20 years of experience is genuinely better at intuitive risk reading. A pundit with 20 years of geopolitical commentary is not - there's no calibration loop.
- 1Before trusting your or anyone's «gut», check: regular environment + fast feedback. Both?
- 2Where feedback is absent, replace intuition with explicit decision protocols.
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.
- · Методичка по Канеману - когда экспертная интуиция работает