Overconfidence
Сверхуверенность · Чрезмерная уверенность
We are systematically more certain than we should be, especially about predictions and our own judgment.
Confidence is generated by coherence, not accuracy. When the story in your head fits together, you feel sure - even if the story uses very little data. Experts are not immune; in many domains experts are MORE overconfident than novices because their stories are richer.
Overconfidence is the precondition for every other big mistake: planning fallacy, ignoring base rates, taking irreversible bets without guardrails. Calibration matters more than confidence.
Asked to give a 90% confidence interval for an unfamiliar quantity, most people give one too narrow - and the true value lands outside it 40–50% of the time.
- 1Always state confidence as a number, then check yourself against actual outcomes over time.
- 2If you're 90% sure, ask: «what would the 10% world look like, and how would I notice I'm in it?»
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.
- · Методичка по Канеману - самоуверенность экспертов