Availability heuristic
Эвристика доступности · Availability bias
We judge how common or likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.
If you just watched a documentary about plane crashes, planes feel dangerous. If a colleague got fired last week, layoffs feel imminent. Vividness, recency, and emotional weight inflate perceived frequency - independent of actual base rates.
Availability turns whatever the media emphasises into your default model of risk. It also makes your own recent experience feel more representative than it actually is.
After a friend's startup fails, you suddenly think «most startups fail» feels truer - even if the base rate hasn't moved.
- 1Ask: «what's the actual base rate, separate from what just happened to me?»
- 2Notice when vivid recent examples are doing your statistics for you.
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.
- · Методичка по Канеману - эвристика доступности