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KahnemanTemplate
Bias Scanner
Before a decision, surface the most likely cognitive shortcuts that are running the show.
10–15 minutes
The decision in one sentence
Be specific.
Am I substituting an easier question?
Write the original question. Then write the easier one your mind might be answering.
What's the base rate?
Find ≥3 similar past cases. Note their outcomes (not their plans).
What anchor was set first?
A number, a price, a timeline. Name it. Then ask what your number would have been without it.
If I'm wrong, how will I know?
Concrete falsifier. Not «I'll see».
Output
A short note for the decision: substitution, base rate, anchor, falsifier.
Related concepts
WYSIATI - What you see is all there isWe build confident conclusions from the small slice of information available, ignoring what we don't know.Question substitutionWhen a question is hard, the mind silently answers an easier related question instead - and reports the answer as if it answered the original.Base rate (and base-rate neglect)The background frequency of something across the relevant population - and the chronic mistake of ignoring it in favour of vivid specifics.AnchoringAny number you see first quietly pulls every subsequent estimate toward it - even when the anchor is irrelevant or random.OverconfidenceWe are systematically more certain than we should be, especially about predictions and our own judgment.
Read the original book
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.