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Black SwanTemplate
Doxastic Confidence Update
Track and update p - your belief level in a hypothesis - as evidence arrives.
5 minutes per update
The hypothesis
«If I do X, Y will change by Δ within T.»
Starting confidence p₀
0.4 = new / few analogs. 0.8 = repeated cases. Be honest.
What evidence would move p UP?
Concrete, observable.
What evidence would move p DOWN?
Concrete, observable. The dangerous one.
What evidence stops everything (red)?
Compliance, health, ban, reputation, runaway spend.
Current p (update as evidence arrives)
Be willing to move both ways.
Output
A living log: hypothesis, p₀, signals, current p, threshold actions.
Related concepts
Doxastic rulesBelief-handling rules: track confidence as a number, update it on evidence, and gate big actions behind high p.Epistemic arroganceConfidence that vastly exceeds the quality of evidence - usually because the speaker can't see what they don't know.OverconfidenceWe are systematically more certain than we should be, especially about predictions and our own judgment.
Read the original book
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.