Epistemic arrogance
Эпистемическая надменность · Эпистемическое высокомерие
Confidence that vastly exceeds the quality of evidence - usually because the speaker can't see what they don't know.
Epistemic arrogance is what fills the gap between «I have some information» and «I know enough to act with certainty». The person isn't lying - they genuinely feel sure. The structural problem is that the silence beyond their data also feels like data.
Most catastrophic forecasts in business, finance, and politics come from competent people whose competence in adjacent areas convinced them they could speak with confidence about this one.
A successful exit gives a founder confidence about all startups. The same founder loses on the next bet because the new context didn't match their prior.
- 1Ratio: state your evidence count out of total available; demand «in 10 cases out of 10 I'd bet on this».
- 2Force calibration: «what would I need to see to drop my confidence by half?»
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.
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