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Doxastic rules

Доксастические правила · Doxastic principles

Belief-handling rules: track confidence as a number, update it on evidence, and gate big actions behind high p.

Plain explanation

«I'm confident» without a number is theatre. «p = 0.6» is a target you can update. Doxastics asks you to (a) state a starting belief, (b) define what evidence would update it, and (c) bind decisions to specific confidence thresholds.

Why it matters

Most disagreements aren't about facts - they're about how confident the parties are. A common doxastic frame is the cheapest peace treaty.

Practical example

Starting a project: p₀ = 0.55 «this will hit MRR in 6 months». Define green/red evidence. Don't scale until p ≥ 0.8.

How to use
  1. 1Always write p. Always write evidence. Always bind p to action thresholds.
Related tools
Read the original book

This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.

Source notes
  • · Эпистемолого-терминологическое хранилище «Черный лебедь» - Доксастические принципы