Survivorship bias
Ошибка выжившего · Эффект выжившего
Drawing conclusions only from the survivors of a selection process, ignoring everyone the process eliminated.
Closely related to silent evidence. The classic example: WWII bombers came back with bullet holes in wings and tail. The instinct: armour those parts. The correction (Abraham Wald): the planes hit in engines and cockpits didn't come back. Armour what's missing from your sample.
Every «study what works» analysis is at risk. Including books, podcasts, schools of thought that survived. Selection is invisible by design.
Mutual fund performance studies that only include funds still operating dramatically overstate average returns - the closed/merged failures are gone.
- 1Reconstruct the selection process. Where did losers go? Can you find any of them?
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.
- · Черный Лебедь - survivorship bias