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Black SwanMental model

Epilogism

Эпилогизм · Эпилогический метод

Reasoning by pattern from concrete observable cases, refusing to extrapolate beyond what's directly seen.

Plain explanation

Borrowed from skeptical Greek physicians. Epilogism stays close to direct experience and refuses fancy theory. «I notice that whenever X happens, Y follows. I don't claim to know why. I act on the pattern.» It's deliberately humble about causation but rigorous about observation.

Why it matters

Most of the durable wisdom passed down through human history is epilogist. Theory comes and goes. Patterns observed across centuries persist for a reason.

Practical example

«People who eat slowly without phones nearby seem to be healthier» is epilogist. «Mindful eating activates the parasympathetic nervous system» is theory. The first survives longer.

How to use
  1. 1When in doubt, follow the observed pattern. Don't require the mechanism.
Read the original book

This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.

Source notes
  • · Эпистемолого-терминологическое хранилище «Черный лебедь» - Эпилогизм