Back to library
Black SwanTemplate
Tail Risk Scan
Map where you're exposed to outcomes you can't recover from.
10–15 minutes
What decision / system / position?
One concrete thing. Not «my career» - «accepting this client contract».
Three ways this could fail badly
Concrete scenarios, not abstract worries. «Client cancels mid-project, lawyer fees $20k».
Which is unrecoverable?
Mark the one that doesn't average out and doesn't get reversed by a winning streak.
What caps the unrecoverable tail?
Insurance, contracts, reserves, exit clauses, smaller size - pick one and commit.
Output
A short list: decision, ruin path, cap, residual exposure.
Related concepts
RuinThe class of outcomes from which you cannot recover. Ruin doesn't average out, doesn't get reversed by a winning streak, and ends the game.ExposureThe shape of what happens to you under different outcomes - not the probability of those outcomes. Manage exposure, not forecast.ExtremistanDomains where a single observation can dominate the total - wealth, book sales, pandemic spread, social-media reach, war casualties.Positive asymmetry (convexity)Shape your bets so the downside is small and the upside is large. The asymmetry - not the probability - is what generates positive long-run results.Barbell strategyCombine extremely safe positions with extremely risky ones. Avoid the «moderate» middle, which has thin-tail-thinking risk you can't see.
Read the original book
This part of the knowledge base is inspired by the book. Go to the Ukrainian edition to explore the concept in depth.